This Is Why Your Flights Are So Expensive Right Now
When we were analysing passenger numbers for last season, we found a very strong correlation between flight prices and guest bookings for particular dates. A quick trip to Geneva during February half-term last season sounded just right for many ski loving families in the UK - until they saw flights would set them back over £3,000 for a round trip.
A family of 2 adults and 2 children aged 11 or over face paying £1,700 (without baggage) for a week long trip at Easter 2024. That price will only go up.
When it comes to flight prices in 2023, some of the prices are pretty eye opening.
Hayley Berg, economist at the air travel booking app Hopper says: "Pretty much every region of the world is seeing a price increase." Hayley also added about a third of search demand on Hopper is for Europe, and the average airfare is up by 32 percent when compared to 2022.
So why are flights so expensive right now?
The sky-high costs of flights in 2023 is due to a number of factors, all combining together at once to put upward pressure on airfares. These are the four main reasons flights are so expensive right now:
1. Inflation
Inflation is pushing the prices of most things higher currently, let alone airfares. We only see the customer facing prices, but behind the scenes, inflation is increasing everything, from the salaries of the pilots’ salaries through to the price of the on-board snacks. All told, airfares are actually rising at a higher rate than inflation. According to a recent report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks airfares and other costs, “[Flight] ticket prices are significantly outpacing the rate of inflation.” The agency noted that the average airfare in the U.S. rose 28.5 percent in 2022 over the previous year, while the Consumer Price Index, the most common measure of inflation, rose by 6.5 percent for the same period.
2. The Price Of Oil
Jet fuel is an airlines’ biggest expense after salaries, and the price of oil is significantly up from 2019. This rise is in part due to the war in Ukraine; oil cost around $63 a barrel in April 2019, but has been well over $85 a barrel during the past 6 months.
3. Aircraft Supply
One constraint is that new aircraft aren't coming off the assembly line as fast as expected. Gary Leff, founder of the road warrior website View from the Wing, points out that airlines retired older planes during the pandemic, expecting to eventually replace them with the more fuel-efficient models they had on order. But Boeing and Airbus have both faced delays in manufacturing and delivering aircraft due to ongoing supply chain problems.
4. Shortage Of Staff
It's fair to say airlines are still building back their route networks since the Covid pandemic, and while they’re getting closer to what they experienced pre-Covid, they still may have a shortage of cabin crew to handle more capacity. Some airports, like London Heathrow, introduced passenger caps to reduce the impact of staff shortages. In turn, this forced the airlines to reduce their schedules. Ultimately, more people are travelling again, but this desire to fly both domestically and internationally has outpaced the ability of airlines and airports to scale back up.
Will flight prices ever come back down or is this the new normal?
The demand for flights is greater than ever, with many airlines reporting record booking volume since the beginning of the year. BUT... inflation remains high, the price of oil is dropping but jet fuel is still a huge expence, and airlines are still staffing up.
Also, as the EU introduces stricter legislation to reduce emissions from flying, airlines may also have to invest in more efficient planes...which leads back to the shortage of aircraft issue. They will also be required to buy emission allowances to offset their carbon footprint.
The CEO of Eurowings, Jens Bischof, says he expects flight prices to increase further due to rising fuel, personnel and airport costs. "Flying for a taxi price is no longer possible", Bischof told German media outlet, Funke. He predicts that flights will be around 20 per cent more expensive during peak season this year than in 2022.
All of the above means further hikes in ticket prices could be seen in the future.
IS IT STILL POSSIBLE TO GET CHEAP FLIGHTS?
Yes, but it's all about timing. Towards the end of last season we found mid-week flights (Monday to Thursday) were on average 38.6% cheaper than weekend break flights (Thurs to Mon), and on average 76% cheaper than Saturday to Saturday flights.
So first tip - if you want a cheap flight, fly off peak.
If you haven't already, sign up for airline loyalty programs so that you're on their email list and will be the first to hear about flash sales. Many of our guests fly with British Airways thanks to the Avois points they acrue throughout the year.
Sign up for alerts from fare comparison and booking sites like Kayak and Skyscanner.
Use Google Flights fare comparison calendar - if your travel dates are flexible, you can see the full spread of airfares on different days of the week to get the lowest price. The image below is for a Thursday to Thursday flight from London to Geneva over Christmas, for example:
Look at flights where hold luggage is included. Ski clothing and equipment is bulky, so even with a 15kg hold bag, your price could suddenly jump up an extra £50pp. As such, it's worth looking at deals for airlines that include a hold bag in the airfare price.